toastwithbutter's Blog

Halloween is just a week away...  We had the "Fair storm", then we had the "Conference storm" and so the next significant weather change I've noticed is just after Halloween.  With the 10:08 a.m. "weather discussion" discussing "...a series of troughs moving through..." there is a possibility that this pleasant dry weather will be rudely interrupted come next weekend.  It is too early to say with any certainty exactly what will actually happen, but I would say that it would be best to do any lawn mowing, leaf raking, and garden work the next few days while we have the dry pattern.  There was no mention of the amplitude of these troughs, whether they be Pacific in origin or more Polar in origin.

As we get closer to winter, we get closer to the possibility of prolonged stormy periods.  The wording "...a series of troughs...", a least to me, suggests up to two weeks of unsettled weather could occur.  For now that's just a "heads-up" as a week is beyond the "written in stone" period, so but pleased stay tuned to the media as next weekend could be significantly different than this weekend.

I have always found that yard work is easiest when the materials I am working with are dry- especially doing leaf clean-up.  If your lawn is high enough that you would ordinarily mow it during the summer, I would mow it during the next few days.

Really, it hass been nearly a year since I saw Mercury last November so this past week has been, well, a real delight!

Inasmuch as Mercury reached "greatest western elongation" this past Wednesday It will still be easy to spot the next few days as Mercury has been both very bright and rising in a completely darkened sky, not counting the Moon.

For those of you who haven't seen Mercury, It has been the brightest object in the morning sky after the Moon and Sirius.

Yesterday morning the Moon was just west of Regulus- the first magnitude star in Leo the Lion.  This morning the Moon was about half way between Regulus and the planet with the famous rings- Saturn.  Tomorrow morning the Moon should be just east of Saturn which will make spotting Mercury very easy.  Mercury will be the next "stop" for the Moon.  The Moon will begin approaching Mercury on the morning of the 26th when It will be above Mercury just enough to make them "a pair".  The weather is supposed to be good at least until Tuesday so get outside and use this great opportunity to see the Planet that never appears for more than several days at a time.

My timing and location: Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd I could see Mercury from 6:45 a.m. until 7:16 a.m.- although the dawn twilight had washed out all the other stars in the same area by then though.  I was out just east of Magna so the mountains were hardly an obstruction to the horizon.

Trivia: My eyes were scanning the horizon about 20-25 degrees north of Mercury and I spotted a bright star which I know is called "Arcturus".  I also know that the "handle" of the "Big Dipper" points to Arcturus, but that morning I used Arcturus to find the handle of the Big Dipper.  In a couple of weeks Spica (the next first magnitude star along the Zodiac) will appear again which Mercury will pass before going behind the far side of the Sun.  One last piece of trivia... the Orionid Meteor shower was supposed to have peaked on the 20th.  As I was out Wednesday morning while looking toward "Capella" (another first/zero magnitude star) I caught a glimpse of a "shooting star" that was one of the Orionids.

One last piece of advice- dress warmly as temperatures have been just below 30*F around that time and "just standing there still" can allow the cold to chill you.  But please make an effort to see Mercury now...

Two of the main weather models are said to be in agreement that "much colder" temperatures with some areas of "heavy precipitation" can be expected this weekend as of this evening.

When the models start "coming together" like this it is a good indication that the weather will generally develope in the anticipated manner.  It used to be that "5-day forecasts" were fairly changeable and that rarely did they even mention much confidence in a "7-day forecast".  However with advances in technology and valuable experience gained, the accuracy in forecasts beyond 36-48 hours has increased dramatically over the recent years.

I remember reading a "weather discussion" last fall sometime about 8-days before there was a very significant storm.  The weather had been in a fairly stagnant eventless pattern and one day there was talk that one of the models was starting to lean toward a very cold and wet system headed right this way.  Because it was only one model not many of the local weather people mentioned it, but that particular model kept insisting that we would be affected by an abrupt change in the weather.  A few days of this went by before some of the other models began to agree with the "outlier".  I noticed that the local 7-day forecasts began to vary widely on both temperatures and precipitation amounts.  Then about 36-48 hours before the event most of the local weather anchors were giving the same message that a significant storm would be here in less then two days.

While this weekend is still some days away, the fact that the period is within the time that accuracy can be reasonably expected and that the models aren't "scattered all over" any more puts quite a bit of faith in the upcoming weekend having a bit of a chill to it.

With the recent storm I have noticed the leaves really starting to fall from the trees.  Personally, I would not wait until you have five inches of leaves all over to start cleaning them up. 

Isn't that interesting, it's still warm enough to have to mow and weed yet have to clean up falling leaves.  In a couple of months, wait, I'm not ready to put away my gardening things just yet...

Because the September opportunity to see Mercury was quite dismal, I just checked a few dates and times courtesy the "Farmer's Almanac" for the approaching early morning apparition of Mercury which will be far better than the September apparition for reasons I've already explained.  The only problems will be that Summer has packed up and left for the winter and it's a bit of an early hour to get up unless you're already up.

Now if Damon, Brett, and Jodi can "arrange" some cloud and haze free mornings in a couple of weeks this should be worth it provided your eastern view isn't obscurded by mountains, buildings, or trees.  Of course light polution would not be good either.

The maximum amount of minutes that I found that Mercury had set after the Sun in September was on the 5th at 51 minutes.  (For relevant trivia's sake, Mercury had risen 117 minutes before the Sun!  This is important because it shows how the angle of the Ecliptic affects rise and set times of Objects along the Zodiac.)     Now for the upcoming morning apparition of Mercury, which will be best seen from October 19th through the 26th when Mercury will rise in a completely dark sky at least 90 minutes before the Sun a bit north of where the Sun will be.

Unlike the September apparition Mercury will not be competing with twilight to be seen and there will be no other bright "stars" around in the immediate area to confuse It with.  Last fall Mercury was near Spica, a 1st magnitude star- but Spica is "bluer" so It could be easily be distinquished from the more "yellowish" Mercury.  But this year Mercury wiil have the "spotlight" all to Its' self.

P.S. Tomorrow morning, October 7th, Saturn should rise almost 2h and 25m before the Sun allowing It to be decently above the horizon befor the morning twilight starts to compete with It.

With the unseasonably cold trough passing trough the Great Basin, many of the normally colder locations can expect any unprotected gardens to be killed by the frosty conditions expected Tuesday morning.  In fact, many of the higher elevations above 9000' are hovering around 30*F as of the 1:00 P.m. observations (as of 2:00 p.m. temperatures had warmed slightly into the low to mid 30's).  I did notice a 28* and a 29* around the Brighton area in the mountains just southeast of Salt Lake City!!

Not only will the gardens be exposed to killing conditions, but any water in venerable water pipes could freeze and expand as a result thereby posing the possibility that those pipes could crack resulting in leaks.  Even though the cold air mass will modify through the week, draining those pipes that are prone to freezing would be "insurance" against costly repairs.

I have no experience with livestock but the sudden cold will obviously impact them as well and so whatever needs to be done for them should be as well.

The Weather Service expects a northwesterly flow to be over the area for the next several days and so highs are not expected to climb into the lower 80's until Saturday along the Wasatch Front, with lows near 40 Tuesday morning gradually warming into the low to mid 50's by Sunday.

Even though the percentages haven't changed the N.W.S. has added the wording "HEAVY RAIN" and has issued a "FLASH FLOOD WATCH" to include a portion of northern Utah involving the Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys, especially near the recently burned areas.

'A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS EXIST WHICH COULD DEVELOPE INTO AN ACTUAL FLOOD.

MONTITER THIS DEVELOPING STORM CLOSELY AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IMMEDIATELY SHOULD A "FLASH FLOOD WARNING" BE ISSUED'.

This Watch issued at 3:14 p.m. is valid for Midnight tonight through Sunday evening...

As of the 10:34 a.m. "weather discussion" this morning, the cold/wet storm is still coming pretty much as has been "adviretised".  The only difference is is that according to a graphic I saw, the heaviest rain should be over along the Wasatch Front sometime Monday afternnon as the main cold front moves into Eastern Utah.

A "new" graphic has just appeared, one that is very important!!  For areas south of Delta, Nephi, and Price: Up to 2" of rain might fall tonight through Sunday... Localized flooding is possible, especially in low lying areas and along rivers and in narrow canyons.

In the Salt Lake Valley, the bulk of this storm should be from Sunday afternoon until noon on Monday- when the probability of precipitation goes from 60% Sunday to 70% Sunday Night to (a very impressive) 80% Monday.

The high temperatures on Monday will be the lowest of the next several, generally in the low to mid 60's, although these will be after the rain ends.  The lowest lows will be in Logan and Provo with lows in the lower 40's, with mid 40's in Ogden and Salt Lake City- both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

EVERYONE living near a recently burned area is strongly advised to do what they can to protect their property against mud slides and debris flows that accompany them.  With no vegetation to "catch" the expected rainfall, the burned slopes will fill with water and come crumbling down into anything in their paths!!

PLEASE keep updated on this evolving storm.

P.S.  Those of you with automatic sprinklers would do well to turn them off probably until next weekend at the earliest!

Last Sarurday I decided to get out the weed eater because the day before I was walking on the grass and it all "matted" to the ground.  The cartoon showed Garfield bringing a several foot tall blade of grass to Jon and telling him that the grass was a bit long and needed to be mowed.

It was strange because the top of the grass was very dry and even looked a bit "dehydrated".  Yes I thought Garfield could have been shaking his paw at me as I "sliced" into the 7-8 inches worth of grass as I tried to top it off about 2 inches high.  Underneath that dry layer it was somewhat wet.  As the weed eater string cut through the dense growth, wet grass clippings flew everywhere.  Much like bugs get splattered on a windshield, the bottoms of my pants got almost entirely covered with fine "shards" of grass clippings.  The weed eater itself ended up with 1/2 inch of wet grass all over the bottom of it.

I'm horrified that some people that live down the street still haven't cleaned up a big pile of leaves that have been "snow pressed" down onto their front lawn, I bet the lawn under those leaves is going to be really yellowish-white because it has been in the dark!!

If there is a moral to my blog it is to not wait until it is 80 degrees to work in your yard.  In fact, as soon as the weather starts breaking i February is when I like to start.

Happy Gardening!!

I was up on the east bench and was able to see the storm "roll" across the valley.  Fortunately I was inside at the time because when it got to where I was I could barely see the trees outside.

I went to go home that evening and I was surprised to see how the snow had been accumulating vertically against any north facing ojects.  I saw a phone that was ten feet inside an awning but it was covered with wind-driven snow, I could barely see the handset!  I hate to think what it was like for a person out walking in it.  I always carry an umbrella, it's a wardrobe thing, but I don't think it would have very easy to use as windy as it was.  Not only can the wind blow them out of your hand or ruin them but having to hold it into the wind-driven snow makes it impossible to see where your walking.  Of course it was hard even to see anything anyway.

I was kind of dissappointed that the southern moisture didn't get wrapped up in that cold because we could have gotten much more snow than we did.  It also was moving too fast, although snow can pile-up several inches in an hour if the conditions are just right.

Are any of you "storm chasers?"  I was able to "follow" the storm on the computer.  I got to "see" how it was very dark just before the storm reached an area.  I also enjoy seeing the temperatures drop, the wind direction change, and the relative humidity increase as a storm passes.

In northeastern Montana they went from 47F. degrees on Sunday afternoon to -30F. degrees on this morning so our storm could have been much colder as well.  The wind chills were between -50F. and -60F. there.